Although the central bank announced the central parity of RMB against the U.S. dollar to support the market signal is obvious, but by the market, "suppress" the continuing weakness of the spot exchange rate is still, compared to the trend of higher median price there limit, which is backed by a strong current investors purchase Meeting needs and expectations of devaluation increased.
As of yesterday, the yuan has hit a limit on the 6th straight line depreciation is expected to continue heating. In the global economic recession, domestic economic growth continued to slow down the background, such as devaluation, will help stabilize the textile and garment, electronics, toys, shoes, furniture and building materials and construction machinery and other export-oriented enterprises, while the aerospace, paper and other industries have a negative impact.
In the overseas financial market turmoil intensified the occasion, the first decline in recent years, China's foreign exchange, the relevant economic data released recently showed that slowing the rate of inflow of foreign hot money, hot money hidden in the country are gradually withdrawn. Market expectations, the negative growth of foreign exchange may give monetary policy more room for maneuver. In the past 10 years, due to expected strong appreciation of the RMB unilateral, continuous inflow of hot money from overseas Chinese, mostly hot money in real estate, stock market, underground banks, commodity speculation in the market for speculative profit, by the early real estate regulation and monetary policy tightening the impact of cooling domestic asset markets, either volume or turnover is low, so that hot money gained, lost space, just leave a lot of hot money in the planning, clearance to leave. In addition, the continued growth of the domestic economy down, tightening on the real economy is gradually emerging, or the domestic real estate market turning point will come, etc., may lead to the outflow of funds.
Positive impact on
Export: You can not cure ease
In the context of the expected devaluation of the RMB, the industry sector of the impact of different listed companies. Product and raw material export-oriented enterprises in the domestic procurement, in particular, are highly dependent on the export industry, its devaluation can play a stabilizing role. Including textiles, garments, electronic appliances, toys, shoes, hats, furniture, building materials and construction machinery, etc., are to benefit the industry.
According to the study, every 1% appreciation of RMB, the textile industry, on sales down 2% to 6%. The statistics show, cotton, wool textiles and clothing export dependence were 20%, 27% and 60%. At present the textile industry, the average net profit rate of 3% to 4%. Such as devaluation, the textile industry to benefit larger.
Secondary market, the textile sector the recent trend of polarization, Veken Elite, Linda Silk and other leading shares rose significantly, since December rose more than 20%, but there are many stocks in the industry, dragging legs, Jiangsu Sunshine, Huafang textiles fell by more than three percent in December.
The industry believes that, even if the devaluation trend established, but if you can not boost demand in overseas markets, then, caused by the depreciation of the good can only play a soothing effect, investors in choosing stocks, consideration should refer to fundamentals, a combination of factors such as annual reports.
Export small household electrical appliance enterprises in major markets, bargaining power of poor and low-margin hardware mechanical and electrical industry is also in trouble, such as expectations of RMB appreciation reversed, the situation of these industries will be improved. But overall, the current export of the main factors inhibiting the global economic recession and weak external demand, rather than exchange rates, devaluation and therefore can not effectively solve the export problem, it is difficult to fundamentally reverse the decline in exports of the situation.
10 months of 2011, China's cumulative trade surplus of $ 124.028 billion, up 15.4% narrowed. Ministry of Commerce November 11 release of "China's Foreign Trade Situation Report (Fall 2011)," predicted that China's foreign trade growth in 2011 will show a trend from high to low, the report's foreign trade growth in 2012 may fall.
Negative impact on
Aviation: exchange "by the loss of benefits transfer."
In addition, devaluation, may adversely affect a larger segment of aviation and paper industries. For real estate, finance and other industries has been hovering at the bottom, is undoubtedly worse.
Exchange gains and losses of RMB appreciation makes the aviation sector companies stand to benefit, if the devaluation of the yuan by the appreciation of the changes, not conducive to the aviation sector. In addition, airlines jet fuel costs account for more than 30% of the total cost, making the airlines bear the increased cost of aviation fuel pressure. If the RMB devaluation will also increase the cost of aviation fuel.
Such as Eastern Airlines RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar continued to fall, resulting exchange gains in 2010, the company's financial costs of 431 million yuan, down 1.208 billion yuan; the first half of 2011, financial expenses -0.75 billion a year earlier to 637 million yuan. China Southern Airlines 2011 first-half net exchange gain of 1.211 billion yuan, representing an increase of 947 million yuan. Air China first half of 2011, net income of 1.48 billion yuan's exchange rate a year earlier, an increase of 12 billion yuan, up 428 percent.
Paper: relatively independent from the pulp
As China's forest coverage is low, the utilization of waste paper is not high, and thus become China's largest importer of pulp and paper industry has become China's third Dayong exchange industry. As the domestic pulp and paper-making materials in a larger proportion of imported waste paper, wood pulp paper-making enterprises accounted for about 60% of the cost of imported wood pulp accounted for 70% devaluation of U.S. dollar foreign exchange to buy raw materials mainly depend on the paper industry to that will increase the imports of raw materials or costs. In addition, most of the domestic large-scale paper machine to rely on imports, because imports of machine and raw materials needed foreign currency, foreign currency liabilities of listed companies, the RMB devaluation will affect the company's foreign exchange earnings, and even there the possibility of exchange losses.
For the paper industry, to create a sound forest, paper, pulp industry chain in order to ensure the healthy development of enterprises. Since a high proportion of current Chenming Pulp and Paper, Sun Paper and Yueyang Forest & Paper and other listed companies less affected by the external environment, but also in the construction industry chain to lead the industry. Composite
[Broadcast] disk
RMB 6 days "touch" limit
WASHINGTON correspondent Zhuge Xuan reported on December 7, the RMB against the U.S. dollar hit a sixth consecutive trading day trading range limit, the Department three years for the first time.
State Council Information Office held a press conference on Tuesday, the Ministry of Commerce international trade negotiations, Chong Quan, deputy representative at the press conference on the issue of RMB continuous touch "limit line" issue, said that this is a very good sign, not just the description of the RMB exchange rate subject to government control, is regulated by the market.