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Yarn Market Weekly: three recent analysis of raw materials and market outlook forecast

Author: ComeFrom: Date:2011/12/26 9:41:18 Hits:1938
   Recent yarn stall the basic raw material market is weak overall market downturn in state-based, and to the industry is still generally bearish on the heart is still •.

    First, the cotton: the recent cotton futures market, although whether or not the spot price fell more than performance, Zheng cotton market and the electronic order matching and more shock-oriented, such as electronic matching market on November 14 MA1202 to close at 19,500 yuan / ton, 11 16 to close at 19,510 yuan / ton, Nov. 18 to close at 19,550 yuan / ton. Zheng cotton futures market, such as November 14, CF8201 to close at 20,035 yuan / ton, November 16 CF201 to close at 20,025 yuan / ton, Nov. 16 to close at 20,040 yuan a CF201 / ton,

    Although the spot market more unstable mind waiting to see a strong market, cotton traders ship can be secured mainly psychological, turnover is more deserted, the industry's basic confidence in the lower fall, but the price in a certain state purchasing and storage price support, the whereabouts and little lint now mainstream in the mainland 329 19,500 yuan / ton and down.

    Outlook forecast: Although cotton, the recent decline in cotton by-products is still small, but the recent years, the overall market throughout the cotton yarn market is more sluggish, with little turnover, Shao Xiao region 32s knitting yarn mainstream price 25500-26000 yuan / ton, and yarn plant was cut, and some small factories or even stop production, with market participants in the basic bearish outlook dominated, this cotton market prices will continue to organize the main weak light.

    Second, the polyester staple fiber: It should be said, into the polyester staple fiber market since October, after the relative has been in decline trend, particularly in early November, prices fell more significantly, almost went down, the main one is affected by the upstream raw material prices continue to weaken , so that the original polyester staple fiber becomes more vulnerable weakness, loss of support and the staple factory shipments pressure rise; the other hand, the downstream demand has been in a cold state, the textile market environment is not good under pressure, the export market always difficult to have greatly improved, shrinking demand for polyester yarn, polyester yarn manufacturers to increase inventory, delivery pressure is growing, and the phenomenon of significant price cuts take the goods, while the mill itself is no guarantee in the case of polyester, the demand for polyester staple fiber and consumption is generally declining. Furthermore, the market by buying up not buying off the psychological impact, waiting to see a strong bearish psychology, whether manufacturers or merchants were digested with the purchase of inventory and with the use of the main. 1.4D * 38mm polyester staple fiber from the center of the mainstream of early November, 11900-12000 yuan / ton price continued to fall until about mid-November to 10,800 yuan / ton, a decline of 1,000 yuan / ton, the staple fiber manufacturers increasingly face losses. While polyester staple fiber market is relatively recent international crude oil prices due to high prices of raw materials upstream consolidation of polyester, polyester staple fiber manufacturers offer a temporarily stable, but the market is still cautious overall weakness, the weak die hard.

    Outlook forecast: After a while polyester staple fiber decreased significantly after the goods have been at the cost of yin state, but in the present, the downstream market is still not optimistic about the market, mainly outside the single relatively small, significant decline in export market share, the relative consumption of polyester yarn as in the large province of Guangdong, exports shrunk dramatically this year. The domestic production this year due to the cost of funds to the domestic market has been in a flat trend. Expected to remain weak short-term market trend based.

    Third, the material plastic staple: the recent market conditions remained weak viscose staple down the main, especially into late October and early November, viscose staple fiber prices fell by almost obvious, rate increase, a strong bearish, viscose 1.5 * 38mm staple of the mainstream by the center in early November price 18000-18200 yuan / ton, has been a continuous decline to the current price of 16,300 yuan mainstream center / ton, lower still, less than a month, a drop in 1,500 yuan / ton or so. The pre-September compared to the peak of 20,000 yuan / ton down in 4000 yuan / ton or so. For the viscose staple fiber prices, the main factor was due to the short stick last year, supported by the export boom, so that yield some significant expansion phenomenon, the opposite this year, viscose staple fiber exports began to decline, manufacturers of viscose staple fiber for sale not so optimistic. The other hand, this year the track is not a good environment, such as textile and garment exports to poor pressure, weaving factory orders declined, the relative lack of foreign orders, together with some of the market that the price is high, the market are either merchants or manufacturers quantitative digestion or on-demand-driven inventory, sales people is not good yarn, a sharp increase in factory inventories, prices, and even in people under the cotton plant itself is no guarantee accordingly, the demand for viscose staple fiber is almost bottoming out.

    Outlook forecast: Although the viscose staple fiber has dropped nearly 4,000 yuan / ton, and cotton and down or not, but in the near future is expected to generally larger inventory of viscose staple fiber manufacturers, in the downstream market, the overall situation is not the economy, Spinners cheap Paohuo when, and this year more inadequate performance of the textile environment of repression, the market is still weak pattern will be difficult to get out, cut short filler manufacturers continue to enter the state